Estimate average jam length & probability of a 20+ minute jam
Quick, fan-focused estimates using era averages, venue context, and simple heuristics (lightweight — for fun and planning). Results are approximate: meant to inform expectations, not to predict specific songs.
Jam Length Calculator
Expected Avg Jam Length
0.0 min
Chance of a 20+ min Jam
0%
Estimated Jam Density
0 min / show
Era drives baseline jam minutes & long-jam probability.
Venue affects set length, audience vibe, and long-jam likelihood.
Free text; certain legs (festivals, summer runs, holidays) can boost long-jam odds.
Typical Phish shows range ~100–140 minutes. Affects jam density calc.
Long-hiatus songs sometimes get extended jams (select if relevant).
Holiday/festival context increases odds for special gags and longer jams.
Estimated Results
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Era baseline jam minutes / show | — |
| Estimated total jam minutes (show) | — |
| Estimated number of jams | — |
| Expected average jam length | — |
| Chance of 20+ minute jam | — |
Lightweight estimates only — based on era averages, venue multipliers, and simple heuristics (rarity/holiday adjustments). Not a prediction for any specific show or song.
How this works (brief)
This tool uses simple era averages and modifiers to produce a quick expectation:
- Era baseline defines the proportion of a show typically devoted to extended jams.
- Venue & context (festival, holiday, MSG/Dicks runs) scale the probability of very long jams.
- Last-played gap (if applicable) nudges the chance of longer exploratory jams on rarities or bust-outs.
Typical ticket / vibe curve by venue (note)
Sheds & festivals historically produce looser jams; premium arenas (MSG/Dicks) and holiday runs can increase exploratory play. This calculator uses those heuristics to adjust long-jam odds.
Luke’s Picks Editorial
Last updated • Fan-focused setlist & jam heuristics.