Penalty Shootout Odds — What you can model
This interactive tool calculates the probability a team wins a penalty shootout. Inputs: per-kick scoring probability for Team A and Team B, number of initial kicks (usually 5), and whether to resolve ties with sudden death. Results are statistical estimates — useful for analysis, coaching, or fan discussion.
Team A Win %
0%
Team B Win %
0%
Tie after initial kicks
0%
Expected Kicks
0
Calculator
Enter average probability a given penalty is scored (0–100%). Example pro averages ~70–85%.
Standard shootout uses 5 kicks per team.
If unchecked, final outcome may remain a tie (useful when modeling shootout abandonment or coin-toss scenarios).
Shows probability table for final scores after the initial rounds (e.g., 3–2, 4–4).
Summary
Enter probabilities and click Calculate Odds to see results.
Breakdown
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Team A win (final, incl. sudden death if enabled) | 0% |
| Team B win (final, incl. sudden death if enabled) | 0% |
| Tie after initial kicks | 0% |
| Expected goals — Team A (initial) | 0 |
| Expected goals — Team B (initial) | 0 |
Estimates assume independent kicks with fixed scoring probabilities. Real-world factors (order, shooter selection, goalkeeper performance, pressure) can shift outcomes.
Luke’s Picks Editorial
Last updated • Penalty shootout probability analysis and interactive tool.